A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
