🔗 Share this article

Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It frequently acts as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. However, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or simply the most shocking upset.

But the current field is fundamentally different. The pool of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent conference champions fading and recent also-rans rising in unison. In an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's facing five other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide-open targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a normal season!

Where his case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still